Experts are still learning about the coronavirus (COVID-19) & curious to know when & how the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic will end? With new information coming out every day, it can feel overwhelming at times. As a person who studied Veterinary Medicine at University, we had 2 courses, that may lead us to the answer; Epidemiology and Virology.
Short answer: I think within the next 3 months maximum.
Let me be frank, I always hated this Virus.
They are from a nasty family called Family Coronaviridae! That family has 2 ugly sons, one would be less harassing called ToroVirus, but the elder son is called CoronaVirus and it is very wild and bullying.
It spawned a wild range of diseases in farm animals and pets. The main source of the virus was from an animal with a little change (called a “Mutation”)
Just like humans, in most cases, it does some damage to the respiratory system in animals too.
My poor dear cat Gandhi has died because of a disease called (FIP) for this damn virus (let me say again, I hate it).
Many dogs, cats, rabbits, avians, swine, calves, and ferrets have died because of this nasty Coronavirus. It’s really tough and deadly from this point of view.
According to my Virology books, I remember that the weather & temperature had a great effect on the mortality and the outbreak rate of the virus. In the summertime, as the temperature rises, the effects of the virus dramatically decrease. It seems that it is sensitive to heat. (say again, my poor cat died in winter!)
Although we should see what kind of change this little maniac has done (the mutation), I hope that is not resistant to heat!
According to this evidence, I conclude that:
it will become less common in the next three months. (at least I hope so).
This scenario really depends on us and how the government controls the country. The formula is simple:
Lockdown the whole country; Separate and quarantine the carriers and the patients from others; Strictly cut the connection of the people. Let those who are carriers become ill or develop some immunity to the virus and give medical help to those who are too ill to recover (sadly some people won’t make it); Limit the sources and make the area of disease smaller, and let the effect of the virus pass.
As we know the Coronavirus incubation period and the recovery or death progress in the human body, with locking down the area (Country in this case) and doing as exactly what the protocol quarantine says in a pandemic; you need about 3 months maximum.
Just like China’s case, the coronavirus outbreak was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019!
As you have seen, China locked down a whole province of 56 Million people.
If we quarantine a place where a deadly outbreak happens, we can really reduce the effectiveness of the epidemy by about 90%. But it’s not easy. It must be done properly and extremely strictly, sometimes cruelly, with a good plan and algorithm and in accordance with the origin of the disease.
Yes, we do it with animals on the farm its really effective (in diseases with extremely high mortality rate like Gas Gangrene 100%, Babesiosis50%, compared to Corona with 2% mortality rate) but maybe it’s not practical for human societies. As you have seen, China has done it & I really believe that they have done it right.
Maybe it was cruel but look when you don’t do it like China, you have a death rate like Italy! I hope to see it vanish by summertime. I just missed my vacation in Lebanon for the new year holidays because of this damn virus.
Until then, take care!
What I wrote was about the pandemic & epidemic phase of the virus. It is clear that the virus will certainly be present forever, but not as deadly as it is now. As the Spanish flu 1918 or The 1918 Influenza Pandemic happened and the causes were a virus from the Orthomyxoviridae Virus Family, the flu and its virus are present today, we get the flu, but our death rate is very low comparing to the time of the pandemic or epidemic.
Of course, in the near future, we will probably have much more information about the virus, with at least 50 pharmaceutical companies around the world are researching for the vaccine, and our understanding of the treatment and how it spreads will certainly increase.
Then, the pandemic phase will Stop.
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